Toulouse 2-1 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 3 Mar 2024

Toulouse
2-1 HT 0-1
Nice
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Toulouse vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
36%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.62
Over 2.5
35%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.58
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.56
6+ Goals
8%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 38% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.91
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
9%
6.29
X/2
13%
4.68
X/X
21%
3.95
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.24
2/X
5%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.1pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.7pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
58%
+6.7pp
35%
Over 2.5
42%
-6.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.9pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toulouse v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 45%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.32/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.16
-31% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +22%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 81%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
19.8 Crosses 18.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Toulouse vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Nice
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.24 xG 1.35
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 Passes 470
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
21.05.2023 Nice Nice 0-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
07.08.2022 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
15.02.2020 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-1 Nice Nice FR1
21.12.2019 Nice Nice 3-0 HT 3-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
15.03.2019 Nice Nice 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1

Toulouse 2-1 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
2-1
AWAY Nice
1.79 xG 1.44
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
335 Passes 447
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
33 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse nicked a narrow win over Nice 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (32% / 32% / 36%) promised a tight game; Toulouse found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Toulouse had 44% of the ball to Nice's 56%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.79 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Toulouse and 1.33 for Nice.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Nice?

Toulouse 2-1 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 32%, draw 32%, Nice 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nice) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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