Brest 1-0 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.54
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.08
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.1
X/1
16%
3.56
X/2
7%
11.05
X/X
12%
4.43
2/1
13%
28.5
2/2
8%
9.95
2/X
6%
18.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
58%
-2.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.0pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.9pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 20%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
1.89/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/2.17
+27% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
22.3 Crosses 11.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Le Havre
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.50 xG 1.54
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
395 Passes 224
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.08.2023 Le Havre Le Havre 1-2 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
01.02.2019 Le Havre Le Havre 1-1 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR2
28.08.2018 Le Havre Le Havre 3-3 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FRLK
24.08.2018 Brest Brest 1-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
15.05.2018 Le Havre Le Havre 2-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR2
09.02.2018 Le Havre Le Havre 1-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
1-0
AWAY Le Havre
0.97 xG 0.59
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 2
448 Passes 251
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
11 Box Touches 18
4 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brest vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest nicked a narrow win over Le Havre 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Brest as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brest had 60% of the ball to Le Havre's 40%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.97 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brest and 1.33 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Brest vs Le Havre?

Brest 1-0 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Brest 56%, draw 25%, Le Havre 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brest), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brest) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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