Lyon 0-3 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 3 Mar 2024

Lyon
0-3 HT 0-1
Lens
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lyon vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.23
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 29% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.55
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
13%
5.36
X/2
9%
5.82
X/X
11%
4.42
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
18%
3.99
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.36/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.52
+48% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
15.5 Crosses 18.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.8

Lyon vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lens
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.62 xG 1.72
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
430 Passes 382
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Lens Lens 3-2 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
12.02.2023 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 1-1 Lens Lens FR1
02.10.2022 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
19.02.2022 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
30.10.2021 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 2-0 Lens Lens FR1
03.04.2021 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 0-3 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
0-3
AWAY Lens
2.40 xG 3.57
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
368 Passes 439
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
24 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens swept aside Lyon 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lyon at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lyon had 46% of the ball to Lens's 54%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 2.40 to 3.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lyon and 1.33 for Lens.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Lens?

Lyon 0-3 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lyon 41%, draw 26%, Lens 33%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Lyon), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lyon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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