Rennes 1-2 Lorient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 3 Mar 2024

Rennes
1-2 HT 0-0
Lorient
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒19:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Rennes vs Lorient Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.54
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.39
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.39 — our 29% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.86
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.55
X/1
17%
3.58
X/2
9%
12.3
X/X
12%
5.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.15
2/2
8%
10.1
2/X
8%
18.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
62%
-10.2pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.9pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rennes v Lorient — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Lorient EU Bookmakers 19%
+3% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
2.04/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.73
+23% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
463 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 77%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
16.9 Crosses 11.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6

Rennes vs Lorient Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Lorient
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.47 xG 0.83
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
520 Passes 267
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Lorient Lorient 2-1 HT 2-1 Rennes Rennes FR1
27.01.2023 Lorient Lorient 2-1 HT 2-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
07.08.2022 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
24.04.2022 Rennes Rennes 5-0 HT 2-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
18.12.2021 Rennes Rennes 1-0 HT 1-0 Lorient Lorient FRK
28.11.2021 Lorient Lorient 0-2 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1

Rennes 1-2 Lorient — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
1-2
AWAY Lorient
1.39 xG 1.97
56% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
437 Passes 341
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
38 Box Touches 15
31 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Lorient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient squeezed past Rennes 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Rennes at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rennes had 56% of the ball to Lorient's 44%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 1.39 to 1.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Rennes and 0.83 for Lorient.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Lorient?

Rennes 1-2 Lorient in the France - Ligue 1 on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Lorient?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Rennes 52%, draw 26%, Lorient 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rennes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rennes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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