VVV-Venlo 1-1 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.84
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.19
6+ Goals
9%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 24% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.06
1/2
8%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
11%
5.05
X/2
12%
6.49
X/X
11%
4.93
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
12%
4.35
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +19%
1.45/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.39
-6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
24.4 Crosses 17.5
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Roda
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
302 Passes 384
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
14.10.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-1 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
19.03.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-1 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
07.10.2022 Roda Roda 4-1 HT 1-1 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
13.02.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-1 HT 1-1 Roda Roda HOL2
26.11.2021 Roda Roda 0-0 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
1-1
AWAY Roda
0.83 xG 1.64
33% Ball Possession 67%
14 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
183 Passes 490
67% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo and Roda shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was VVV-Venlo at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 33% of the ball to Roda's 67%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.83 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for VVV-Venlo and 1.50 for Roda.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs Roda?

VVV-Venlo 1-1 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated a VVV-Venlo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 43%, draw 25%, Roda 32%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (VVV-Venlo) ✗ Over 2.5
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