Vitesse 1-1 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.29
Over 2.5
62%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.49
No
41%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.82
2-3 Goals
35%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
20%
7.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.03
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
14%
6.51
X/2
15%
5.28
X/X
9%
5.54
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
18%
3.02
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
12.55
Value flag · 2/X at 12.55 — our 10% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-2.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
40%
-1.6pp
62%
Over 2.5
60%
+1.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
63%
-4.4pp
41%
BTTS No
37%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitesse EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 45%
-58% / -58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
2.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/2.00
+31% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -28%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
Crosses 19.0
Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitesse
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Excelsior
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.76 xG 0.96
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 4
351 Passes 306
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
37 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
25.02.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 1-2 HT 0-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
07.10.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
22.04.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
12.08.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 3-1 HT 2-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
09.02.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOK
18.01.2019 Vitesse Vitesse 3-2 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitesse
1-1
AWAY Excelsior
0.55 xG 2.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 12
223 Passes 432
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 34
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Vitesse vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitesse and Excelsior shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Vitesse had 38% of the ball to Excelsior's 62%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.55 to 2.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitesse had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vitesse and 1.00 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Vitesse vs Excelsior?

Vitesse 1-1 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitesse vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated an Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vitesse 35%, draw 26%, Excelsior 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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