Katowice 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Aug 2024

Katowice
3-1 HT 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
9.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 24% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.0
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
8%
6.28
X/2
16%
5.41
X/X
11%
4.96
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
16%
3.25
2/X
8%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
40%
Away Win
40%
+0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.6pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Katowice v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 43%
-50% / -50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +17%
1.27/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.58
-24% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
329 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
30.0 Crosses 13.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
30% Ball Possession 70%
10 Total Shots 30
4 Shots on Target 12
4 Corners 11
The Meetings
31.10.2018 Katowice Katowice 0-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK

Katowice 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
3-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.21 xG 1.53
35% Ball Possession 65%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
214 Passes 468
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
32 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice beat Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Katowice found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Katowice had 35% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 65%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.21 to 1.53.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Katowice 3-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Katowice 35%, draw 26%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 40%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
25 Aug 2024
18:30 Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin Analysis →
21:15 Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Varşova Analysis →