Lech Poznan 2-0 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.24
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.26
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 28% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.25
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.1
X/1
15%
5.46
X/2
11%
6.3
X/X
13%
5.01
2/1
10%
24.85
2/2
13%
3.98
2/X
8%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.1pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 37%
+9% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.14/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.39
+24% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
379 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 81%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
17.0 Crosses 21.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.28 xG 2.04
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
384 Passes 289
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
07.04.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.02.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POLK
01.10.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 5-0 HT 3-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
02.04.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.09.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
23.06.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
2-0
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
2.75 xG 0.53
56% Ball Possession 44%
23 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
335 Passes 259
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
39 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan got the better of Pogon Szczecin 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 56% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 44%, shots finished 23-11, expected goals 2.75 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.83 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?

Lech Poznan 2-0 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 41%, draw 28%, Pogon Szczecin 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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