AVS 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
4.48
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
41%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.93
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.98
6+ Goals
10%
18.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
8.05
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
6%
15.7
X/1
10%
9.78
X/2
9%
3.92
X/X
17%
4.49
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.23
2/X
6%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
20%
+10.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
41%
Away Win
54%
-13.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +41%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
279 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
Crosses 24.9
Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
1-0
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.71 xG 1.42
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
212 Passes 420
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 26
8 Crosses 36
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AVS vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS squeezed past Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, AVS had 35% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 65%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.71 to 1.42 — on chances, Vitoria Guimaraes could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of AVS vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

AVS 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AVS 31%, draw 28%, Vitoria Guimaraes 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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