Arouca 1-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Aug 2024

Arouca
1-0 HT 1-0
Nacional
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arouca vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 27% vs market 21.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.7
X/1
23%
4.29
X/2
9%
8.28
X/X
10%
5.14
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
10%
6.03
2/X
8%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-2.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 28%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.47/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.40
+19% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
17.6 Crosses 17.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0

Arouca vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Nacional
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
285 Passes 286
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 25
5 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.01.2017 Nacional Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
21.08.2016 Arouca Arouca 2-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR
01.05.2016 Arouca Arouca 3-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR
02.01.2016 Nacional Nacional 2-2 HT 1-2 Arouca Arouca POR
08.02.2015 Arouca Arouca 3-3 HT 1-2 Nacional Nacional POR
21.01.2015 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional PRLK

Arouca 1-0 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
1-0
AWAY Nacional
1.25 xG 1.14
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
239 Passes 269
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca edged past Nacional 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Arouca had 47% of the ball to Nacional's 53%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.25 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Nacional?

Arouca 1-0 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Arouca 48%, draw 28%, Nacional 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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