Union Magdalena 2-3 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 25 Aug 2025

Union Magdalena
2-3 HT 1-0
Alianza Petrolera
📅25/08/2025 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2025

Union Magdalena vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.9pp
33%
Draw
30%
+3.2pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.0pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.1pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Magdalena v Alianza Petrolera — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Magdalena EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.11/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.34
-17% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
18.4 Crosses 12.7
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Union Magdalena vs Alianza Petrolera Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Magdalena
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.17 xG 0.93
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
290 Passes 314
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.03.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
27.08.2023 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 2-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
13.03.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 0-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
13.07.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
28.01.2022 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
23.09.2019 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL

Union Magdalena 2-3 Alianza Petrolera — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Magdalena
2-3
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.57 xG 1.23
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
250 Passes 359
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Union Magdalena vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera nicked a narrow win over Union Magdalena 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 33% / 29%) promised a tight game; Alianza Petrolera found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Magdalena had 44% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 56%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.57 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Union Magdalena and 0.67 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Union Magdalena vs Alianza Petrolera?

Union Magdalena 2-3 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 25/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Magdalena vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Magdalena win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Union Magdalena 38%, draw 33%, Alianza Petrolera 29%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Union Magdalena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
25 Aug 2025
02:20 America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional Analysis →
04:30 Atletico Bucaramanga vs Aguilas Doradas Analysis →