Alianza Petrolera 1-0 Union Magdalena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 9 Mar 2025

Alianza Petrolera
1-0 HT 0-0
Union Magdalena
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2025

Alianza Petrolera vs Union Magdalena Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.9pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.3pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.9pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alianza Petrolera v Union Magdalena — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Magdalena EU Bookmakers 24%
+9% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.37/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.26
-2% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -36%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 70%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
20.8 Crosses 13.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9

Alianza Petrolera vs Union Magdalena Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Union Magdalena
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.76 xG 1.52
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
296 Passes 308
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 2-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
13.03.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 0-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
13.07.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
28.01.2022 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
23.09.2019 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
31.03.2019 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 1-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL

Alianza Petrolera 1-0 Union Magdalena — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1-0
AWAY Union Magdalena
1.80 xG 0.41
55% Ball Possession 45%
23 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
350 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Union Magdalena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera edged past Union Magdalena 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alianza Petrolera as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 55% of the ball to Union Magdalena's 45%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 1.80 to 0.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Alianza Petrolera's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 0.83 for Union Magdalena.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Union Magdalena?

Alianza Petrolera 1-0 Union Magdalena in the Colombia - Primera on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Union Magdalena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 46%, draw 32%, Union Magdalena 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Petrolera), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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