Barcelona 1-0 Getafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
63%
1.3
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
22%
4.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
3.04
6+ Goals
12%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 22% vs market 19.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
23.6
X/1
15%
3.34
X/2
5%
19.4
X/X
8%
7.34
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
7%
15.95
2/X
5%
24.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Barcelona win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
72%
-8.7pp
21%
Draw
17%
+3.2pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+5.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.5pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Getafe EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
2.30/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.49
+22% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +12%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
454 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 74%
37.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
18.9 Crosses 16.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Getafe
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.37 xG 0.56
69% Ball Possession 31%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
608 Passes 218
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.02.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 4-0 HT 1-0 Getafe Getafe İS1
13.08.2023 Getafe Getafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
16.04.2023 Getafe Getafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
22.01.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 1-0 Getafe Getafe İS1
15.05.2022 Getafe Getafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
29.08.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 2-1 Getafe Getafe İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona
1-0
AWAY Getafe
1.93 xG 0.69
78% Ball Possession 22%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 5
555 Passes 90
89% Pass Accuracy 54%
29 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Barcelona vs Getafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona squeezed past Getafe 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Barcelona had 78% of the ball to Getafe's 22%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.93 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Barcelona's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Barcelona and 0.17 for Getafe.

What was the final score of Barcelona vs Getafe?

Barcelona 1-0 Getafe in the Spain - Primera Liga on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona vs Getafe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Barcelona 63%, draw 21%, Getafe 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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