Genoa 1-1 Sampdoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.49
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.78
6+ Goals
9%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.52
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
13%
14.95
X/1
22%
3.95
X/2
8%
8.3
X/X
11%
4.02
2/1
7%
29.0
2/2
9%
7.11
2/X
7%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-3.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.4pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genoa EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 25%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
2.03/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.34/1.29
+26% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / -48%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
21.4 Crosses 20.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sampdoria
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.11
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
333 Passes 340
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.04.2022 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
10.12.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-3 HT 0-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
03.03.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-1 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
26.11.2020 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-3 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTK
01.11.2020 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 1-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
22.07.2020 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-2 HT 1-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
1-1
AWAY Sampdoria
0.46 xG 0.81
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
181 Passes 388
67% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 13
9 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Genoa vs Sampdoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genoa and Sampdoria couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Genoa at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Genoa had 35% of the ball to Sampdoria's 65%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.46 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Genoa and 1.33 for Sampdoria.

What was the final score of Genoa vs Sampdoria?

Genoa 1-1 Sampdoria in the Italy - Cup on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genoa vs Sampdoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genoa win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Genoa 47%, draw 31%, Sampdoria 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Genoa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genoa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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