Pisa 0-1 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 25 Sep 2024

Pisa
0-1 HT 0-0
Cesena
📅25/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Pisa vs Cesena Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.94
6+ Goals
11%
17.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.8
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
12%
4.42
X/2
14%
7.13
X/X
12%
4.39
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
11%
5.47
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pisa v Cesena — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pisa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 30%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.00
-38% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +57%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Pisa vs Cesena Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pisa
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Cesena
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
The Meetings
08.04.2017 Pisa Pisa 0-1 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
13.11.2016 Cesena Cesena 2-0 HT 1-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
09.02.2008 Pisa Pisa 3-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
09.09.2007 Cesena Cesena 1-2 HT 1-1 Pisa Pisa İTB

Pisa 0-1 Cesena — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pisa
0-1
AWAY Cesena
0.77 xG 2.06
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
360 Passes 327
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pisa vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena edged past Pisa 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Pisa at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Pisa had 52% of the ball to Cesena's 48%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.77 to 2.06 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cesena's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Pisa and 1.00 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Pisa vs Cesena?

Pisa 0-1 Cesena in the Italy - Cup on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pisa vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pisa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Pisa 44%, draw 25%, Cesena 31%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pisa)
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