Udinese 3-1 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.03
Over 2.5
60%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
3.88
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
30%
3.17
6+ Goals
14%
10.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.17 — our 30% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.89
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.8
X/1
16%
3.8
X/2
8%
12.2
X/X
10%
5.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.7
2/2
7%
9.52
2/X
7%
16.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-4.9pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
45%
-5.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
55%
+5.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.6pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
2.13/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/0.70
+55% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
387 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 78%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
12.9 Crosses 13.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Salernitana
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.50 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
312 Passes 330
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
28.08.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 1-1 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
27.05.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 3-2 HT 1-2 Udinese Udinese İTA
20.08.2022 Udinese Udinese 0-0 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
22.05.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 0-4 HT 0-3 Udinese Udinese İTA
20.04.2022 Udinese Udinese 0-1 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
3-1
AWAY Salernitana
2.35 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
432 Passes 391
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Udinese saw off Salernitana 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Udinese as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Udinese had 52% of the ball to Salernitana's 48%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.35 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salernitana led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Udinese and 1.00 for Salernitana.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Salernitana?

Udinese 3-1 Salernitana in the Italy - Cup on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Udinese win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Udinese 56%, draw 23%, Salernitana 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Udinese), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Udinese) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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