KA Akureyri 3-3 HK Kopavogur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.47
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
31%
2.96
Over Pick
69%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.49
No
40%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1
16%
7.08
2-3
35%
2.2
4-5
32%
2.45
6+
17%
4.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 69%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
56%
Home Win
64%
-7.7pp
19%
Draw
19%
-0.1pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+7.9pp
31%
Under 2.5
30%
+1.1pp
69%
Over 2.5
70%
-1.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.2pp
40%
BTTS No
37%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KA Akureyri The Market 68%
Head to Head
AWAY HK Kopavogur The Market 20%
+3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +14%
1.65/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.83
-3% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 78%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
27.8 Crosses 15.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KA Akureyri
4W-2D-0L
AWAY HK Kopavogur
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.59 xG 0.90
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
353 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.06.2024 HK Kopavogur HK Kopavogur 1-2 HT 0-0 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZL
07.04.2024 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 1-1 HT 1-1 HK Kopavogur HK Kopavogur İZL
07.10.2023 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 1-0 HT 1-0 HK Kopavogur HK Kopavogur İZL
30.07.2023 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 1-1 HT 1-0 HK Kopavogur HK Kopavogur İZL
18.05.2023 HK Kopavogur HK Kopavogur 1-3 HT 0-2 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZK
07.05.2023 HK Kopavogur HK Kopavogur 1-2 HT 1-0 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KA Akureyri
3-3
AWAY HK Kopavogur
1.91 xG 2.28
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 6
392 Passes 233
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
37 Box Touches 30
26 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH KA Akureyri vs HK Kopavogur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KA Akureyri and HK Kopavogur couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had KA Akureyri at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (69%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, KA Akureyri had 60% of the ball to HK Kopavogur's 40%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 1.91 to 2.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KA Akureyri had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for KA Akureyri and 0.83 for HK Kopavogur.

What was the final score of KA Akureyri vs HK Kopavogur?

KA Akureyri 3-3 HK Kopavogur in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KA Akureyri vs HK Kopavogur?

Before kick-off our model rated a KA Akureyri win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split KA Akureyri 56%, draw 19%, HK Kopavogur 25%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (KA Akureyri) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (KA Akureyri) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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