Najma 2-0 Damac FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey, 25 Sep 2024

📅25/09/2024 · 🕒18:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
44%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.75
Over 2.5
53%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.96
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.94
6+ Goals
11%
17.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.94 — our 24% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
19%
+12.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
44%
Away Win
57%
-13.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
53%
-6.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
47%
+6.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.0pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Najma EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Damac FC EU Bookmakers 61%
+74% / +74% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+26% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
196 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 81%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Najma
2-0
AWAY Damac FC
2.14 xG 0.86
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
230 Passes 292
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 34
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Najma vs Damac FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Najma saw off Damac FC 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Damac FC at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Najma had 46% of the ball to Damac FC's 54%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 2.14 to 0.86.

What was the final score of Najma vs Damac FC?

Najma 2-0 Damac FC in the Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey on 25/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Najma vs Damac FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Damac FC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Najma 32%, draw 24%, Damac FC 44%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Damac FC), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Damac FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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