Vis Pesaro 4-0 Athletic Carpi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
33%
3.54
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.7
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.33
6+ Goals
7%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 36% vs market 31.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
5%
X/X
23%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.2pp
33%
Draw
25%
+7.9pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.4pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vis Pesaro EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 21%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
2.00/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.25
+28% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
322 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vis Pesaro
4-0
AWAY Athletic Carpi
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vis Pesaro vs Athletic Carpi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vis Pesaro swept aside Athletic Carpi 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vis Pesaro as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, Vis Pesaro had 43% of the ball to Athletic Carpi's 57%, shots finished 19-15.

What was the final score of Vis Pesaro vs Athletic Carpi?

Vis Pesaro 4-0 Athletic Carpi in the Italy - Serie C on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vis Pesaro vs Athletic Carpi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vis Pesaro win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Vis Pesaro 47%, draw 33%, Athletic Carpi 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vis Pesaro), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vis Pesaro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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