GIANA Erminio 2-2 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 25 Oct 2024

📅25/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
5.69
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+3.0pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME GIANA Erminio EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / +2%
1.18/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.23
-3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME GIANA Erminio
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Novara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio 0-1 HT 0-1 Novara Novara İTC
24.09.2023 Novara Novara 1-1 HT 0-0 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio İTC
03.02.2021 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio 2-2 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
07.10.2020 Novara Novara 2-1 HT 2-0 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio İTC
13.10.2019 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio 2-1 HT 2-0 Novara Novara İTC
20.04.2015 Novara Novara 2-0 HT 0-0 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME GIANA Erminio
2-2
AWAY Novara
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH GIANA Erminio vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

GIANA Erminio and Novara couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was GIANA Erminio at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, GIANA Erminio had 62% of the ball to Novara's 38%, shots finished 15-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novara led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for GIANA Erminio and 1.50 for Novara.

What was the final score of GIANA Erminio vs Novara?

GIANA Erminio 2-2 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for GIANA Erminio vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated a GIANA Erminio win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split GIANA Erminio 41%, draw 29%, Novara 29%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (GIANA Erminio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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