Macarthur 1-2 Newcastle Jets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 25 Oct 2024

Macarthur
1-2 HT 1-0
Newcastle Jets
📅25/10/2024 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.69
2-3 Goals
40%
2.03
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.04
1/2 EV+ ✓
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
18%
4.31
X/2
6%
10.2
X/X
9%
6.43
2/1
7%
19.75
2/2
12%
6.67
2/X
8%
14.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.9pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.0pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.9pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Newcastle Jets — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 25%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
2.61/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.69
+58% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
400 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
13.8 Crosses 16.8
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Newcastle Jets
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.93 xG 1.77
49% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
328 Passes 364
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Box Touches 28
27 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-2 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
05.01.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
14.04.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-1 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.02.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
08.01.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
01.05.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS

Macarthur 1-2 Newcastle Jets — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-2
AWAY Newcastle Jets
3.52 xG 0.69
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 2
517 Passes 275
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 20
39 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle Jets nicked a narrow win over Macarthur 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Macarthur at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Macarthur had 64% of the ball to Newcastle Jets's 36%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 3.52 to 0.69 — the balance of chances actually favoured Macarthur.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle Jets led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Macarthur and 1.50 for Newcastle Jets.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?

Macarthur 1-2 Newcastle Jets in the Australia - A-League on 25/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Newcastle Jets?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 49%, draw 23%, Newcastle Jets 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Macarthur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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