FC Tokyo 3-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 25 Oct 2025

📅25/10/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
4.01
6+ Goals
11%
19.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.52
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.55
X/1
16%
4.24
X/2
10%
8.1
X/X
12%
4.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
26.0
2/2
9%
6.74
2/X
8%
15.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
-0.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.69/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.41
+3% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.5 Crosses 19.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.48 xG 0.25
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
388 Passes 186
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
3-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.65 xG 1.43
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
440 Passes 227
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo saw off Fagiano Okayama 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Tokyo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 62% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 38%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.65 to 1.43.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama?

FC Tokyo 3-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 25/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 50%, draw 25%, Fagiano Okayama 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tokyo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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