Fagiano Okayama 1-0 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.79
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.78
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
15%
5.33
X/2
11%
6.02
X/X
15%
3.77
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
11%
4.56
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+4.7pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.1pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-1.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.1pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 34%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.30/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.16
+16% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 79%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
21.5 Crosses 13.9
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-0
AWAY FC Tokyo
0.25 xG 1.48
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
186 Passes 388
67% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama edged past FC Tokyo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fagiano Okayama as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 37% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 63%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.25 to 1.48 — on chances, FC Tokyo could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo?

Fagiano Okayama 1-0 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 42%, draw 28%, FC Tokyo 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fagiano Okayama), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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