Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 Apr 2025

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2-1 HT 1-1
Cerezo Osaka
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2025

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
11%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 27% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.21
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
17%
4.29
X/2
12%
9.68
X/X
16%
5.22
2/1
10%
23.3
2/2
8%
7.7
2/X
5%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.4pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.5pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Cerezo Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 24%
-6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.44/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.41
-6% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
428 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
24.4 Crosses 16.6
0.9 Yellow Cards 0.8

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.69 xG 0.65
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
293 Passes 315
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.08.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.05.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
21.10.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
29.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
22.10.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
07.09.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JPK

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Cerezo Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.61 xG 1.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
378 Passes 389
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima nicked a narrow win over Cerezo Osaka 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 49% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 51%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.61 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.50 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 46%, draw 29%, Cerezo Osaka 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
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