Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.64
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
8%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 31% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.05
X/1
15%
3.75
X/2
12%
9.69
X/X
13%
5.09
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
13%
7.88
2/X
10%
16.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
57%
-15.8pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.9pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.1pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 23%
-10% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.47/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.45
-8% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +19%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 75%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
25.1 Crosses 17.4
0.9 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.70 xG 0.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
264 Passes 304
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.05.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
21.10.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
29.04.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
22.10.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
07.09.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-2 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JPK
27.08.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-3 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2-0
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.45 xG 0.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
349 Passes 382
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima saw off Cerezo Osaka 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 48% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 52%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.45 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.50 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 41%, draw 29%, Cerezo Osaka 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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