Jubilo Iwata 2-1 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
46%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.43
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 29% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.56
1/2
11%
23.6
1/X
6%
15.45
X/1
11%
9.69
X/2
16%
3.96
X/X
10%
5.05
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.17
2/X
8%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
21%
+9.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
45%
Away Win
54%
-8.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 58%
+5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -11%
0.96/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.26
+0% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -27%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
284 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 80%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.7
18.7 Crosses 22.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jubilo Iwata
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.22 xG 1.48
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
320 Passes 340
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2024 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-0 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
08.10.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-3 HT 3-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
03.05.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 3-1 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
06.07.2019 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
30.03.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
24.08.2018 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-1 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jubilo Iwata
2-1
AWAY Kashima Antlers
0.84 xG 1.03
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
248 Passes 422
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jubilo Iwata vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jubilo Iwata nicked a narrow win over Kashima Antlers 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Kashima Antlers at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Jubilo Iwata had 40% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 60%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.84 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Jubilo Iwata and 1.83 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Jubilo Iwata vs Kashima Antlers?

Jubilo Iwata 2-1 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jubilo Iwata vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Jubilo Iwata 30%, draw 24%, Kashima Antlers 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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