Sagan Tosu 1-1 Urawa Red Diamonds — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
45%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.07
6+ Goals
13%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.9
1/2
7%
22.7
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.5
X/1
12%
7.18
X/2
18%
4.66
X/X
8%
5.28
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
20%
2.7
2/X
5%
13.2
Value flag · 1/X at 13.5 — our 11% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-1.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.8pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 50%
+2% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
1.08/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.11
-9% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
362 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
18.8 Crosses 17.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 1.62
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
475 Passes 354
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
07.04.2024 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 3-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
01.07.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-2 HT 1-2 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
10.05.2023 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 0-2 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
08.10.2022 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
13.03.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
14.08.2021 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
1-1
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds
2.59 xG 1.71
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
309 Passes 388
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 31
28 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Urawa Red Diamonds
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu and Urawa Red Diamonds shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Urawa Red Diamonds at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 46% of the ball to Urawa Red Diamonds's 54%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 2.59 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Urawa Red Diamonds led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.50 for Urawa Red Diamonds.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

Sagan Tosu 1-1 Urawa Red Diamonds in the Japan - J1 League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

Before kick-off our model rated an Urawa Red Diamonds win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 31%, draw 24%, Urawa Red Diamonds 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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