Urawa Red Diamonds 3-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 7 Apr 2024

Urawa Red Diamonds
3-0 HT 1-0
Sagan Tosu
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Urawa Red Diamonds vs Sagan Tosu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 31% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
17%
3.92
X/2
12%
9.6
X/X
14%
4.95
2/1
10%
24.0
2/2
6%
7.64
2/X
7%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.4pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Urawa Red Diamonds v Sagan Tosu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
2.07/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.67
+2% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
446 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
17.5 Crosses 14.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

Urawa Red Diamonds vs Sagan Tosu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.37 xG 1.02
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 Passes 455
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.07.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-2 HT 1-2 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
10.05.2023 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 0-2 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
08.10.2022 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
13.03.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
14.08.2021 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
06.03.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-0 HT 0-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP

Urawa Red Diamonds 3-0 Sagan Tosu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
3-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
2.36 xG 0.35
46% Ball Possession 54%
20 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
423 Passes 489
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
40 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Urawa Red Diamonds vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Urawa Red Diamonds cruised past Sagan Tosu 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Urawa Red Diamonds as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Urawa Red Diamonds had 46% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 54%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.36 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Urawa Red Diamonds and 1.33 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Urawa Red Diamonds vs Sagan Tosu?

Urawa Red Diamonds 3-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Urawa Red Diamonds vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Urawa Red Diamonds win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Urawa Red Diamonds 50%, draw 27%, Sagan Tosu 23%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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