Albirex Niigata 0-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.55
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.65
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.68
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
14%
5.1
X/2
12%
5.7
X/X
11%
3.85
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
14%
4.3
2/X
10%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-2.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.07/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.31
-16% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
423 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
19.6 Crosses 17.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 0.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
454 Passes 408
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.12.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
18.02.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-2 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
02.12.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
12.07.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JPK
04.06.2017 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 4-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
10.05.2017 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
0-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.81 xG 0.43
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
591 Passes 286
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
39 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka squeezed past Albirex Niigata 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Cerezo Osaka made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 65% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 35%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.81 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Cerezo Osaka?

Albirex Niigata 0-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 36%, draw 30%, Cerezo Osaka 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Albirex Niigata) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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