Machida Zelvia 0-1 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.82
6+ Goals
11%
16.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.82 — our 26% vs market 20.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.76
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
13%
4.39
X/2
9%
7.14
X/X
10%
4.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
2/2
13%
5.45
2/X
10%
14.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 30%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +12%
1.25/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.35
+34% / +82% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
406 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 74%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
22.0 Crosses 17.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
11.05.2024 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
0-1
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
0.26 xG 0.91
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
244 Passes 239
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 8
30 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shonan Bellmare edged past Machida Zelvia 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 52% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 48%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.26 to 0.91.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Shonan Bellmare?

Machida Zelvia 0-1 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 46%, draw 26%, Shonan Bellmare 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
11 Aug 2024
12:30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka Analysis →
13:00 Jubilo Iwata vs Kashima Antlers Analysis →
13:00 FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale Analysis →
13:00 Sagan Tosu vs Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis →
13:00 Nagoya Grampus vs Tokyo Verdy Analysis →
13:00 Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka Analysis →