Kashima Antlers 1-0 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.07
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.81
6+ Goals
11%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.34
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
22%
3.93
X/2
9%
8.62
X/X
11%
4.82
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
8%
6.92
2/X
6%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.59/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.79
-17% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
21.5 Crosses 17.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.39 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
358 Passes 316
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.10.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-3 HT 3-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
03.05.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 3-1 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
06.07.2019 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
30.03.2019 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
24.08.2018 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-1 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
18.07.2018 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-3 HT 1-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
1-0
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
1.93 xG 1.06
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
376 Passes 303
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 39
15 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers edged past Jubilo Iwata 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kashima Antlers as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 53% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 47%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.93 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Kashima Antlers and 1.50 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Jubilo Iwata?

Kashima Antlers 1-0 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - J1 League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 52%, draw 24%, Jubilo Iwata 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashima Antlers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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