Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 26% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.91
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.5
X/1
23%
3.68
X/2
5%
11.9
X/X
10%
5.39
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
12%
9.73
2/X
7%
17.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-4.7pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.2pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.5pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -15%
1.71/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.75
-2% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
427 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
24.6 Crosses 14.4
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.50 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
397 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka HAZ
25.11.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 HT 2-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
12.03.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
20.08.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 5-2 HT 1-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
29.06.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-0 HT 2-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
12.05.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-1
AWAY Gamba Osaka
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Gamba Osaka shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 61% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 39%, shots finished 18-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.33 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Gamba Osaka?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56%, draw 22%, Gamba Osaka 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ BTTS No
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