Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 10 Feb 2024

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-2
Gamba Osaka
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2023/2024

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Gamba Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.53
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.17
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1.92
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.0
X/1
26%
3.77
X/2
9%
10.85
X/X
11%
6.06
2/1
8%
20.85
2/2
13%
8.1
2/X
7%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
61%
-15.0pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.1pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+10.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Gamba Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
448 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Gamba Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.50 xG 1.12
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
397 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 HT 2-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
12.03.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
20.08.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 5-2 HT 1-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
29.06.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-0 HT 2-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
12.05.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-2 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
03.04.2021 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka squeezed past Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.00 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Gamba Osaka?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Gamba Osaka in the Friendlies on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 46%, draw 25%, Gamba Osaka 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
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