Machida Zelvia 3-1 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.01
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.88
6+ Goals
11%
17.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.25
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.0
X/1
17%
3.88
X/2
11%
9.35
X/X
9%
4.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
2/2
9%
7.65
2/X
5%
15.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +16%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
Crosses 15.0
Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
3-1
AWAY Sagan Tosu
2.84 xG 0.78
38% Ball Possession 62%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 1
242 Passes 446
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia got the better of Sagan Tosu 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 38% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 62%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.84 to 0.78.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Sagan Tosu?

Machida Zelvia 3-1 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 52%, draw 23%, Sagan Tosu 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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