San Diego 1-0 Minnesota United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 25 Nov 2025

📅25/11/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.44
2-3 Goals
35%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.85
6+ Goals
13%
8.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.1
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.2
X/1 EV+ ✓
24%
4.41
X/2
11%
10.05
X/X
9%
6.12
2/1
8%
20.6
2/2
9%
7.37
2/X
5%
15.7
Value flag · X/1 at 4.41 — our 24% vs market 18.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
56%
-0.3pp
19%
Draw
23%
-4.1pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Diego EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 24%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +18%
2.04/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.72
+7% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +5%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
457 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 79%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
17.8 Crosses 12.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Diego
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Minnesota United
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
2.34 xG 0.88
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
539 Passes 246
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
40 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 5
14.09.2025 San Diego 1-3 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
15.06.2025 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-4 HT 2-1 San Diego ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Diego
1-0
AWAY Minnesota United
0.64 xG 0.82
72% Ball Possession 28%
9 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
614 Passes 185
88% Pass Accuracy 67%
27 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH San Diego vs Minnesota United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Diego squeezed past Minnesota United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had San Diego as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, San Diego had 72% of the ball to Minnesota United's 28%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.64 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for San Diego and 2.50 for Minnesota United.

What was the final score of San Diego vs Minnesota United?

San Diego 1-0 Minnesota United in the USA - Major League on 25/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Diego vs Minnesota United?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Diego win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split San Diego 56%, draw 19%, Minnesota United 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Diego) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (San Diego) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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