Minnesota United 2-4 San Diego — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 15 Jun 2025

📅15/06/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.13
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 24% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.08
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
12%
5.18
X/2
13%
6.71
X/X
9%
5.08
2/1
8%
24.65
2/2
9%
4.58
2/X
9%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+3.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY San Diego EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
1.79/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/3.63
-3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -50%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.7 Crosses 12.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
2-4
AWAY San Diego
1.02 xG 2.52
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
251 Passes 571
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs San Diego
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Diego got the better of Minnesota United 4-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Minnesota United at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Minnesota United had 34% of the ball to San Diego's 66%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.02 to 2.52.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs San Diego?

Minnesota United 2-4 San Diego in the USA - Major League on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs San Diego?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 47%, draw 25%, San Diego 28%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Minnesota United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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