San Diego 1-3 Minnesota United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.35
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.78
6+ Goals
10%
7.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
20%
4.47
X/2
4%
8.94
X/X
11%
5.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.25
2/2
14%
6.4
2/X
7%
14.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.25 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-0.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.2pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Diego EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 26%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +29%
1.85/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.64
+15% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
16.2 Crosses 13.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Diego
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Minnesota United
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.52 xG 1.02
66% Ball Possession 34%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
571 Passes 251
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 9
15.06.2025 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-4 HT 2-1 San Diego ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Diego
1-3
AWAY Minnesota United
2.16 xG 0.74
66% Ball Possession 34%
28 Total Shots 6
14 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
507 Passes 241
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
54 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH San Diego vs Minnesota United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United got the better of San Diego 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was San Diego at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, San Diego had 66% of the ball to Minnesota United's 34%, shots finished 28-6, expected goals 2.16 to 0.74 — on chances, San Diego could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of San Diego vs Minnesota United?

San Diego 1-3 Minnesota United in the USA - Major League on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Diego vs Minnesota United?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Diego win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split San Diego 52%, draw 23%, Minnesota United 24%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (San Diego) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Diego) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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