Atlanta United 4-5 Columbus Crew — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.46
No
48%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.6
6+ Goals
9%
6.36
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.04 — our 29% vs market 14.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.37
1/2
7%
20.85
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
15%
7.07
X/2
11%
5.27
X/X
10%
5.84
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
23%
2.79
2/X
8%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+2.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+14.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-14.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
64%
-12.6pp
48%
BTTS No
36%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 49%
+14% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.38/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.38
+39% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
378 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 82%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
19.1 Crosses 13.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Columbus Crew
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.43 xG 2.11
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
372 Passes 460
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
26.06.2025 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 3-1 HT 3-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
21.07.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 2-1 HT 0-1 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
24.02.2024 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 1-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
13.11.2023 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 4-2 HT 3-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
08.11.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-2 HT 2-1 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
02.11.2023 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
4-5
AWAY Columbus Crew
3.78 xG 1.42
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 1
409 Passes 456
88% Pass Accuracy 91%
31 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Columbus Crew
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Columbus Crew edged past Atlanta United 5-4 away from home. Half-time: 1-5. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Columbus Crew as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Atlanta United had 49% of the ball to Columbus Crew's 51%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 3.78 to 1.42 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atlanta United.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Columbus Crew led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atlanta United and 2.17 for Columbus Crew.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Columbus Crew?

Atlanta United 4-5 Columbus Crew in the USA - Major League on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Columbus Crew?

Before kick-off our model rated an Columbus Crew win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 34%, draw 26%, Columbus Crew 41%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Columbus Crew), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Columbus Crew) ✓ BTTS Yes
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