New England Revolution 1-1 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
8.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 29% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.41
1/2
9%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
10%
4.64
X/2
8%
8.11
X/X
10%
5.54
2/1
10%
20.95
2/2
13%
5.69
2/X
6%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-4.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.46/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.79
-10% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
24.3 Crosses 11.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New England Revolution
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Toronto FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.69 xG 1.19
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
420 Passes 398
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-2 HT 0-2 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
21.04.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-0 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
03.03.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-1 HT 0-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
25.06.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 1-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
07.05.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-2 HT 0-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
18.08.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-2 HT 1-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New England Revolution
1-1
AWAY Toronto FC
0.61 xG 0.82
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
415 Passes 377
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New England Revolution vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New England Revolution and Toronto FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was New England Revolution at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, New England Revolution had 53% of the ball to Toronto FC's 47%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.61 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for New England Revolution and 0.83 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of New England Revolution vs Toronto FC?

New England Revolution 1-1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New England Revolution vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a New England Revolution win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split New England Revolution 47%, draw 24%, Toronto FC 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New England Revolution) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New England Revolution) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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