Bourj 1-4 Al Ahed — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lebanon - Premier League, 25 Dec 2025

📅25/12/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
6.35
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
58%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.96
No
42%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
25%
X/X
13%
2/1
2%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
13%
+3.9pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.3pp
58%
Away Win
67%
-9.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
47%
+11.6pp
42%
BTTS No
53%
-11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bourj EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahed EU Bookmakers 71%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
0.46/2.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.82/1.11
-38% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -51%
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
195 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 458 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bourj
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Ahed
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
21.09.2024 Bourj 1-3 HT 1-1 Al Ahed Al Ahed LUBN
POST-MATCH Bourj vs Al Ahed
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahed swept aside Bourj 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Ahed as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

What was the final score of Bourj vs Al Ahed?

Bourj 1-4 Al Ahed in the Lebanon - Premier League on 25/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bourj vs Al Ahed?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahed win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Bourj 17%, draw 25%, Al Ahed 58%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahed), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahed) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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LUBN More Lebanon - Premier League
25 Dec 2025
15:15 Al Mabarrah vs Safa Analysis →