Lommel United 0-2 RFC Liege — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 26 Jan 2025

📅26/01/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
3.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
28%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
9.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 23% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lommel United EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY RFC Liege EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.73/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.69
+27% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
17.8 Crosses 18.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lommel United
1W-1D-1L
AWAY RFC Liege
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.68 xG 1.05
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
536 Passes 213
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.10.2024 RFC Liege RFC Liege 1-1 HT 1-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
02.03.2024 Lommel United Lommel United 4-1 HT 1-0 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
01.10.2023 RFC Liege RFC Liege 2-1 HT 0-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lommel United
0-2
AWAY RFC Liege
0.68 xG 1.97
70% Ball Possession 30%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
498 Passes 173
87% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lommel United vs RFC Liege
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RFC Liege beat Lommel United 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Lommel United at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lommel United had 70% of the ball to RFC Liege's 30%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.68 to 1.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lommel United and 1.33 for RFC Liege.

What was the final score of Lommel United vs RFC Liege?

Lommel United 0-2 RFC Liege in the Belgium - 1st Division on 26/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lommel United vs RFC Liege?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lommel United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Lommel United 52%, draw 24%, RFC Liege 25%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lommel United) ✗ BTTS Yes
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