Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 26 Feb 2025

Real Sociedad
0-1 HT 0-1
Real Madrid
📅26/02/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Copa del Rey – 2024/2025

Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
40%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.74
Over 2.5
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.89
6+ Goals
11%
17.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.89 — our 25% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.81
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
5%
13.7
X/1
9%
6.45
X/2
10%
4.94
X/X
14%
4.29
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
3.19
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-1.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-5.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+5.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 45%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.65/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/2.21
+68% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -55%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 82%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
15.0 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.4

Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Sociedad
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 1.47
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
394 Passes 465
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.09.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
26.04.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0-1 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
17.09.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 0-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
02.05.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 2-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
29.01.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
05.03.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-1 HT 2-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1

Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Sociedad
0-1
AWAY Real Madrid
1.05 xG 1.56
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 8
387 Passes 367
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
37 Box Touches 14
31 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid squeezed past Real Sociedad 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Real Madrid made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Real Sociedad had 52% of the ball to Real Madrid's 48%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.05 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.50 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid?

Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Real Sociedad 34%, draw 26%, Real Madrid 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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