RB Leipzig 1-0 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 26 Feb 2025

📅26/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.29
Over Pick
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
20%
4.63
2-3
38%
1.9
4-5
29%
2.73
6+
13%
7.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.56
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
12%
4.94
X/2
10%
7.81
X/X
11%
5.71
2/1
7%
20.9
2/2
14%
5.17
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.1pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 31%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
2.09/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.83
-6% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 75%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
12.7 Crosses 24.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.10 xG 0.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
468 Passes 332
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-5 HT 0-3 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
13.04.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
25.11.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-1 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
31.10.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
18.02.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 0-3 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
27.08.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
1-0
AWAY Wolfsburg
2.54 xG 0.94
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
355 Passes 339
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig squeezed past Wolfsburg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 51% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 49%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.54 to 0.94 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold RB Leipzig's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.33 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg?

RB Leipzig 1-0 Wolfsburg in the Germany - DFB Cup on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 45%, draw 25%, Wolfsburg 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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