RB Leipzig 1-5 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 30 Nov 2024

RB Leipzig
1-5 HT 0-3
Wolfsburg
📅30/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.45
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
8.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.41
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.6
X/1
11%
4.78
X/2
7%
10.65
X/X
11%
6.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
24.7
2/2
10%
7.43
2/X
10%
16.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.7 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RB Leipzig v Wolfsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
2.08/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.41
+26% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +27%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
386 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 76%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
16.8 Crosses 15.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.17 xG 0.61
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
435 Passes 330
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.04.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
25.11.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-1 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
31.10.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
18.02.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 0-3 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
27.08.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
23.01.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1

RB Leipzig 1-5 Wolfsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
1-5
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.03 xG 2.33
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 3
565 Passes 305
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsburg cruised past RB Leipzig 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was RB Leipzig at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 62% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 38%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.03 to 2.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for RB Leipzig and 0.50 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg?

RB Leipzig 1-5 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 50%, draw 27%, Wolfsburg 23%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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