Union Berlin 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
52%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.71
Over 2.5
56%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
4.16
6+ Goals
12%
19.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.49
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
30.5
1/X
6%
17.1
X/1
11%
9.28
X/2
17%
4.57
X/X
11%
4.88
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.76
2/X
6%
16.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.5 — our 6% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+1.5pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.4pp
52%
Away Win
50%
+1.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
55%
-10.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
45%
+10.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 54%
+19% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.17/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/1.21
+1% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
312 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 73%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
17.0 Crosses 14.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.78 xG 1.78
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
256 Passes 570
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-1 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
12.11.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
29.04.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
06.11.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
08.01.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
14.08.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
1-2
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.71 xG 0.94
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
249 Passes 486
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen nicked a narrow win over Union Berlin 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Union Berlin had 38% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 62%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.71 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Union Berlin and 2.17 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Union Berlin 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 25%, draw 23%, Bayer Leverkusen 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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