Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 30 Nov 2024

Borussia Dortmund
1-1 HT 1-0
Bayern Münih
📅30/11/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
44%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.29
Over 2.5
64%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.56
No
39%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.77
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
28%
2.87
6+ Goals
17%
7.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.21
1/2
8%
23.85
1/X
6%
16.1
X/1
12%
10.6
X/2
19%
4.84
X/X
12%
6.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.4
2/X
5%
15.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
23%
+9.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.0pp
44%
Away Win
53%
-8.9pp
36%
Under 2.5
40%
-3.9pp
64%
Over 2.5
60%
+3.9pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+1.1pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 57%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -18%
1.44/2.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.38
-3% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -38%
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 81%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.4
14.4 Crosses 17.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.28 xG 2.14
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
384 Passes 483
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-4 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
01.04.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-2 HT 3-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
08.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-2 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
23.04.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-1 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.12.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1-1
AWAY Bayern Münih
0.60 xG 1.55
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
220 Passes 539
72% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 27
5 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Münih shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bayern Münih at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (61%) landed while over 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 33% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 67%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.60 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 2.67 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih?

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 33%, draw 22%, Bayern Münih 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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