Bayern Münih 0-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 30 Mar 2024

Bayern Münih
0-2 HT 0-1
Borussia Dortmund
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.94
Over 2.5
66%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.41
No
43%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
10.55
2-3 Goals
36%
2.62
4-5 Goals
29%
2.32
6+ Goals
18%
3.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.56
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.45
X/1
9%
4.07
X/2
7%
16.15
X/X
8%
10.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
16.35
2/2
9%
9.52
2/X
6%
18.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 16.35 — our 12% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
68%
-11.2pp
19%
Draw
17%
+1.9pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+9.2pp
34%
Under 2.5
22%
+11.8pp
66%
Over 2.5
78%
-11.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
67%
-9.4pp
43%
BTTS No
33%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern Münih v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 18%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -9%
2.81/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/2.70
+43% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -30%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
494 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
41.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
22.0 Crosses 10.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.43 xG 1.40
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
453 Passes 386
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-4 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
01.04.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-2 HT 3-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
08.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-2 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
23.04.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-1 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.12.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
17.08.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-3 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih ALSK

Bayern Münih 0-2 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
0-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.53 xG 0.88
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
561 Passes 350
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
37 Box Touches 21
30 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund saw off Bayern Münih 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bayern Münih at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 61% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 39%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.53 to 0.88 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bayern Münih.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.33 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund?

Bayern Münih 0-2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 57%, draw 19%, Borussia Dortmund 24%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
30 Mar 2024
17:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin Analysis →
17:30 Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim Analysis →
17:30 RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Analysis →
17:30 Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg Analysis →
17:30 Werder Bremen vs Wolfsburg Analysis →