Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.25
Draw
19%
5.71
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.46
Over 2.5
62%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
8.75
2-3 Goals
36%
2.4
4-5 Goals
30%
2.36
6+ Goals
15%
3.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.35
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
25.5
X/1
16%
3.72
X/2
5%
24.45
X/X
8%
11.45
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
18.75
2/2
9%
15.9
2/X
6%
24.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.75 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
76%
-11.9pp
19%
Draw
15%
+4.3pp
17%
Away Win
10%
+7.5pp
38%
Under 2.5
25%
+12.3pp
62%
Over 2.5
75%
-12.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.3pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 12%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +18%
2.13/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/2.35
-8% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
492 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
35.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
19.8 Crosses 13.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Hoffenheim
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.72 xG 1.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
418 Passes 373
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-3 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
11.02.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-3 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
20.08.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-3 HT 0-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
07.05.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-4 HT 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
15.12.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
12.04.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-1
AWAY Hoffenheim
3.15 xG 0.75
68% Ball Possession 32%
34 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
640 Passes 265
89% Pass Accuracy 77%
69 Box Touches 14
35 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen edged past Hoffenheim 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 68% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 32%, shots finished 34-6, expected goals 3.15 to 0.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayer Leverkusen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.67 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 64%, draw 19%, Hoffenheim 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
30 Mar 2024
17:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin Analysis →
17:30 RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Analysis →
17:30 Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg Analysis →
17:30 Werder Bremen vs Wolfsburg Analysis →
20:30 Bayern Münih vs Borussia Dortmund Analysis →