Mönchengladbach 0-3 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 30 Mar 2024

Mönchengladbach
0-3 HT 0-1
Freiburg
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.01
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
10.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.83
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
15%
4.86
X/2
11%
7.02
X/X
11%
5.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
2/2
15%
4.73
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mönchengladbach v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
2.04/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.62
+32% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
17.3 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mönchengladbach
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Freiburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.50 xG 2.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
382 Passes 362
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 3-3 HT 1-3 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
04.03.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
11.09.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
23.04.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 3-3 HT 0-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
05.12.2021 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-6 HT 0-6 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
03.04.2021 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1

Mönchengladbach 0-3 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mönchengladbach
0-3
AWAY Freiburg
1.55 xG 1.77
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
14 Corners 1
424 Passes 371
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
41 Box Touches 16
35 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg ran out comfortable winners over Mönchengladbach 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Mönchengladbach at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mönchengladbach had 54% of the ball to Freiburg's 46%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.55 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mönchengladbach and 2.17 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg?

Mönchengladbach 0-3 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mönchengladbach vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mönchengladbach win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mönchengladbach 45%, draw 24%, Freiburg 31%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Mönchengladbach), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mönchengladbach) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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