RB Leipzig 0-0 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
17%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.63
Over 2.5
65%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
6.22
2-3 Goals
37%
2.09
4-5 Goals
32%
2.55
6+ Goals
14%
5.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.62
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.55
X/1
26%
3.79
X/2
4%
15.2
X/X
6%
8.07
2/1
7%
19.3
2/2
8%
10.35
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
18.45
Value flag · 2/X at 18.45 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.5pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.4pp
17%
Away Win
15%
+2.1pp
35%
Under 2.5
34%
+0.9pp
65%
Over 2.5
66%
-0.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.3pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +16%
2.08/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.73
+9% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +8%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
445 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
17.1 Crosses 15.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.43 xG 1.32
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
553 Passes 202
85% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
01.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0-3 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
08.10.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
08.01.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
15.08.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
23.01.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-2 HT 2-2 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
0-0
AWAY Mainz 05
2.75 xG 0.92
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 2
537 Passes 227
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
40 Box Touches 13
38 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig and Mainz 05 played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had RB Leipzig at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 67% of the ball to Mainz 05's 33%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.75 to 0.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.83 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05?

RB Leipzig 0-0 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 62%, draw 21%, Mainz 05 17%. The final score 0-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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